We're two months into the 2026 season, and while a lot has gone as everyone predicted, there have also been plenty of shocking events in the early stages. The old saying is true: You can't predict baseball. So, let's dive in and break down some of the biggest surprises in MLB this year.
AL's down bad
Seriously, who saw this coming? With the exception of the Rays and Yankees, who've both hit rough patches in May, the Junior Circuit has been playing some awful baseball. Through Wednesday, only four AL teams - the Yankees, Rays, Guardians, and White Sox - are above .500. If the season ended today, the Twins and Mariners would make the playoffs with sub-.500 records - Seattle as a division champion. Nobody's fully out of it, either. The Blue Jays and Athletics, who have started slow and are two games below .500, sit in a virtual tie with Minnesota for the No. 6 seed. Boston, which fired its manager in April, is eight games under yet only three back. Heck, even the league-worst Angels somehow face just a six-game deficit. It's simply impossible to explain why this is happening. Yes, things might even out one way or another over the next month, but until then, the AL standings will continue to leave everyone scratching their heads.
Braves are back
Last year's downturn in Atlanta appears to have been an injury-related anomaly. Under new manager Walt Weiss, the Braves are running roughshod over the majors, sporting the league's best record (37-19) and second-best run differential (plus-95). Matt Olson and Michael Harris II are powering the offense, and Chris Sale and Bryce Elder have stepped up to lead the rotation, while bullpen duo Raisel Iglesias and Robert Suarez have allowed just four total runs in 40 combined innings. The Braves have managed to shine despite multiple key players missing time with injuries, including Spencer Strider, Ronald Acuña Jr., and Drake Baldwin. Barring something monumental, Atlanta likely has an NL East title - its seventh since 2018 - locked down.
NL Central is good?
The days of this division being a punching bag seem to be over. All five teams ended Wednesday sporting winning records while being separated by just 5 1/2 games. The biggest shocker among them has been the Cardinals, who were supposed to be rebuilding following an offseason fire-sale. Instead, they sit in a virtual tie with the Cubs for the final NL playoff spot. Milwaukee's once again up top, sporting the Senior Circuit's third-best record, but the up-and-coming Reds and Pirates, led by their respective bright young superstars, are making plenty of noise and won't go quietly. Even the Cubs, who snapped a 10-game skid Wednesday, are in second place and very much alive. It's hard to believe that the NL Central could have multiple playoff teams in 2026, but this is why we play the games.
Ohtani's offensive slump
Look, even a slumping Shohei Ohtani is infinitely better at hitting than 98% of his peers. And this offensive slump hasn't stopped him from pitching like a potential Cy Young winner. But considering what Ohtani's done offensively over the last three years, his .269/.400/.482 slash line with just nine homers seems rather pedestrian. For the first time in his career, the four-time MVP has taken a few "half-days," as it were, by opting not to DH during some of his mound starts and even occasionally taking the next day off too. He's still getting on base but has hit just three homers in May, and that power outage has continued even as he's shown signs of life elsewhere during the last two weeks. Ohtani's still great. He remains a unicorn. He might even be the NL MVP front-runner still. But the Dodgers do need more from him at the plate if they're going to three-peat.
Murakami mania
There are 29 teams watching the White Sox and kicking themselves right now. Munetaka Murakami's perceived shortcomings wrecked his market, leading him to accept a two-year deal with Chicago in December. All he's done since is hit an AL-best 20 homers, the most ever by a rookie before June in the modern era. He also leads the AL in runs scored (42) and sits top five in RBIs (40), walks (42), and OPS (.936). Yes, he is striking out - his 78 Ks place are tied for fourth in the majors - but he also struck out a lot in Japan. The 26-year-old has countered the high number of strikeouts with a 17.5 BB%, which is tied for fourth in the majors. Murakami's the real deal, a fan favorite, and a leader of the surprising White Sox, not to mention he's threatening to run away with AL Rookie of the Year honors.
The Mets' mess
Yes, the Mets have endured a ton of injuries. No, that's not an excuse as to why baseball's most expensive team is 10 games under .500 and playing utterly unwatchable baseball. Bo Bichette's .590 OPS is the lowest of his career. Marcus Semien's showing his age on both sides of the ball. Brett Baty's bat hasn't developed as expected. Devin Williams has been maddeningly inconsistent in the ninth inning. Freddy Peralta's been fine but hardly the ace that New York needs. Manager Carlos Mendoza is barely clinging to his job. The only positives have been Juan Soto, who can't carry this team by himself no matter how great he is, and the emergence of youngster A.J. Ewing. Plus, the team should be able to flip Peralta for prospects at the deadline. Everything else has been a disaster, and the Mets only have themselves to blame.
Trout's renaissance
This has been a long time coming for Mike Trout, who saw his legendary prime wrecked by a slew of hard-luck injuries. But now he's fully healthy and back in his familiar center field, and the results speak for themselves. While not quite peak Trout, the three-time MVP is on pace for his best season in almost five years and perhaps his first full season in over a decade. He's one of the few bright spots on a dismal Angels squad, leading the team in nearly every offensive category. Trout is showing the baseball world that he's still got it - and that's a great thing for the sport, no matter who you root for.
Rice is cooking
The Yankees gave Ben Rice a shot to play every day, and boy has he run with it. Rice has formed a dynamic and fearsome duo with Aaron Judge, to the point that he's almost outdoing his star teammate. Though Judge has caught Rice in home runs, the 27-year-old leads New York in almost every other offensive category, while his 177 wRC+ is second in the majors. The Yankees have needed him, too, with Giancarlo Stanton once again sidelined and limited power production from the rest of their lineup (Judge excluded). Rice is a great player on one of the best teams in baseball, and it feels like he's only beginning to hit his stride.
Nobody beats 'the Miz'
Jacob Misiorowski being selected to the All-Star Game last summer after only five big-league appearances caused plenty of controversy. There will be no such anger when he puts on an All-Star jersey this summer. Misiorowski is the first pitcher to reach 100 Ks this season and sports a jaw-dropping 14.1 K/9. He's allowed four homers and walked just 19 batters in 64 innings. He carries a 1.83 ERA, 1.88 FIP, and 0.83 WHIP while holding hitters to a .152 average. Misiorowski's fastball averages - averages - 100 mph, and he set a tracking-era record by reaching triple digits on 57 of his pitches in his most recent start. But the 24-year-old can also dial it down to around 87 mph with his knee-buckling curve. Starting pitchers aren't supposed to have this kind of stuff, and yet "the Miz" is going out and destroying hitters. We're seeing the start of something special.
Young aces taking over
Of course, Misiorowski's not the only young ace who's dominating these days. Paul Skenes is one of Misiorowski's main rivals for the NL Cy Young, and he won't give up that trophy easily. Cincinnati's Chase Burns has morphed into an ace, showing why he was the second overall pick two years ago. In the AL, Cam Schlittler is proving that his shocking rookie season was no fluke; he leads the AL in ERA (1.50), FIP (1.90), and WHIP (0.85), while sitting third in strikeouts. He's the class of an AL group that includes Cleveland's dynamic duo of Gavin Williams and Parker Messick, Blue Jays playoff hero Trey Yesavage, and surprising Angels breakout star José Soriano. Who says the starting pitcher is dead, anyway? The future aces are here, and they're showing that pitching is in great hands going forward.
