Running analysis of the World Cup group stage

Our soccer writers share their observations and insights throughout the 2026 World Cup.

Mexico inspires home crowd

Co-host Mexico kicked off the 2026 World Cup with a solid 2-0 win over South Africa at the iconic Estadio Azteca on Thursday. Mexico scored early, played with a man advantage for most of the second half, and took a comfortable win to give Mexican fans hope that history can repeat itself on home soil for El Tri.

Mexico's best World Cup campaigns to date came in 1970 and 1986 when the team reached the quarterfinals, both times as the host. Hosting again in 2026, El Tri will play all their group stage matches in their homeland. Topping Group A would keep the team in Mexico City for the round of 32 (and possibly the round of 16), giving Mexico an advantage in what could be a special tournament for Javier Aguirre's men. The roar of the home crowd when Julian Quinones scored the tournament's first goal was electric. - Caio Miari

South Africa exposes early concerns

Mexico deserves credit for its opening victory, but we need to address the elephant in the room here. The quality of the expanded World Cup with 48 teams is already concerning. South Africa didn't look good at all Thursday, and its head-scratching display fell well short of the standard we'd like to see at soccer's greatest tournament. South Africa sits 60th in the FIFA rankings, still ahead of eight teams competing in North America this summer.

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South Africa's first game also shows what teams should avoid in this tournament. Goal difference will be huge for third-place teams to potentially qualify for the knockout rounds. South Africa is already at minus-two with zero goals scored; it faces Czechia next without two starters who received red cards against Mexico. Not ideal. - Caio Miari

And we're off!

Co-host Mexico scored the first goal of the 2026 World Cup within the opening 10 minutes of Thursday's tournament opener against South Africa. Winger Julian Quinones - the top scorer in Saudi Arabia this past season - capitalized on a brutal defensive error to send the already raucous Estadio Azteca into raptures.

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After four long years of waiting, the greatest sporting spectacle on the planet is back. - Gianluca Nesci

Co-hosts take center stage

Mexico, looking to reach the World Cup quarterfinals for the first time since it last hosted the event in 1986, opens the tournament at the iconic Estadio Azteca. The footballing cathedral should provide an enormous benefit to El Tri, whose performance under veteran bench boss Javier Aguirre can charitably be described as unspectacular.

The United States, a third-place finisher at the first World Cup in 1930, has openly talked about parlaying the power of home-field advantage into its best World Cup showing yet. Final or bust, then? Mauricio Pochettino appears to finally have a settled XI ahead of his team's opener against Paraguay on Friday, and the expected return of defender Chris Richards from an ankle injury gives the U.S. a timely boost in terms of lineup and morale.

Canada, meanwhile, continues to battle a variety of fitness issues. Somehow, the injury bug doesn't seem satisfied with the giant bite it's already taken out of Jesse Marsch's squad.

The status of star defender Moise Bombito remains unclear, midfielder Ismael Kone is suddenly battling a fever that forced him out of training Wednesday, and captain Alphonso Davies has yet to take part in a full team training session as he continues to recover from his hamstring ailment. Canada should get its first World Cup win (and point) and advance out of Group B, but the task gets more challenging each day. - Gianluca Nesci

One final GOAT-off?

Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo are no longer at the peak of their powers. Considering they have a combined age of 79 - Messi turns 39 later this month, and Ronaldo is 41 - it's remarkable that the two are about to play in their record-breaking sixth World Cups at all. But Father Time remains undefeated; this is almost certainly the last World Cup for both icons.

That means it's also the last chance we'll have to possibly see them clash directly at the World Cup. The simplest path to the blockbuster matchup involves both Argentina and Portugal winning their respective groups (J and K), which would set them on a collision course for the quarterfinals. A variety of outcomes and pathways could also cause them to lock horns in the round of 16, or even the final.

Messi vs. Ronaldo at World Cup

Messi is trying to lead Argentina to back-to-back titles and break Miroslav Klose's record for most World Cup goals; he needs only three to tie the benchmark of 16 tallies. Ronaldo, looking to help Portugal win its first world title, is chasing down the scarcely believable milestone of 1,000 career goals (he's sitting on 973). The storylines are endless.

Frankly, we all deserve to see this last dance in some form. - Nesci

New-look World Cup in many ways

To the delight of Gianni Infantino, the 2026 World Cup will be unprecedented: Three co-hosts, 48 teams, 104 matches, and 1,248 players will make this summer's extravaganza the largest in soccer history.

There will also be a slew of rule changes introduced, with FIFA and the International Football Association Board (IFAB) aiming to eliminate time-wasting and avoid crucial refereeing mistakes that have an outsized impact on results. Here are some of the new measures you'll see.

• VAR powers expanded (seriously)

Just what everyone wanted, right? The video assistant can now review any instance in which a player has been shown a second yellow card and therefore gets sent off; previously, only straight red cards were reviewable. However, the VAR cannot intervene to check for potential second bookings for anyone already on a yellow. The on-field referee still has some power, at least.

The awarding of a corner kick can also be checked, but that must be done quickly enough to overturn the on-field decision before play has restarted. When in doubt, take your corners quickly.

• Countdowns for goal kicks, throw-ins

Referees will visibly start a five-second countdown if they deem that a player is taking too long over a goal kick or throw-in; it won't automatically start when the ball goes out of play, however, and will instead be at the discretion of the match official. If a player deliberately wastes time to restart play, a corner kick or throw-in could be awarded to the opposition.

• Timed substitutions

Players will have 10 seconds to leave the pitch (at the nearest point) when their number is shown by the fourth official for a substitution. If they don't comply, their teammate cannot enter the match for at least one minute, and the team must play down one man until the next stoppage in play.

At some point, someone (and their team) will get burned by one of these new laws. Let's hope the rule book, the most mundane thing of all, isn't the biggest talking point of this World Cup. - Nesci

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