Rory McIlroy enters the third round of the Masters with a six-shot advantage, the largest in tournament history. Can anyone track down the defending champion on moving day? Follow along for live updates and analysis of Round 3 at Augusta National.
Fireworks everywhere
Shane Lowry made an ace on the par-3 sixth to get within four shots of McIlroy's lead. The Irishman is 3-under through seven, adding to the long list of players going low on the front nine at Augusta.
Haotong Li eagled No. 8 to move into second alone at 9-under par. Cameron Young shot 4-under on his first nine and is now 12-under since making the turn during Thursday's opening round.
Meanwhile, McIlroy steadied the ship with a birdie on No. 3 to get back the shot he dropped on his first hole.
Augusta's current conditions are the friendliest all week by far. Patrick Cantlay and Russell Henley already posted rounds of 66, and Scottie Scheffler is trending toward an even lower score. That does not bode well for McIlroy's chances of sustaining his big lead. He was the only one to conquer the firm and fast conditions in the tournament's first two rounds, but now, chasers will be able to apply pressure with birdies instead of battling to make pars.
Rory's lead dwindles
McIlroy got off to a nervy start, bogeying the first hole and making par on the par-5 second. He missed his first two fairways of the day as he continues to struggle with his driving accuracy. Meanwhile, Patrick Reed birdied his first three holes, trimming McIlroy's lead to two shots less than 30 minutes into the leader's round.
McIlroy is now only a -140 favorite on theScore Bet to win the green jacket after starting the day at -275, an implied probability change of 15%.
Sam Burns (-8), Cameron Young (-7), and Haotong Li (-7) are all within four of McIlroy, with Scottie Scheffler and Justin Rose five back.
⛳️ Think someone can track down Rory? Bet on in with theScore Bet here
Augusta yielding low scores
Plenty of players are already going low on moving day, including world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler. The two-time Masters champ made the turn at 5-under for the day, sparked by an eagle on No. 2.
Hideki Matsuyama, Chris Gotterup, Max Homa, Jake Knapp, and Matt Fitzpatrick are all at least 2-under after the opening few holes of their third round. The front nine at Augusta is playing nearly a full stroke under par, with 28 players having completed the outward nine. That should give the McIlroy chasers some hope as they begin their rounds. The final pairing tees off at 2:50 p.m. ET.
Conditions will get tougher as the day goes on, but Brian Harman's signed for a 5-under 67 to post the lowest round so far.
Rory's to lose
McIlroy blitzed the back nine during his second round to create his record-breaking six-shot lead at the halfway point. He birdied six of his final seven holes to pull away from an otherwise crowded leaderboard full of major champions.
The defending champion is -275 on theScore Bet (73.3% implied probability) to become only the fourth player in Masters history to win back-to-back green jackets. He would join Jack Nicklaus, Nick Faldo, and Tiger Woods if he can pull off the feat. Given how difficult Augusta National has played so far, McIlroy can likely shoot even par over two days and still have a really good chance at victory.
However, keep an eye on McIlroy's driving accuracy. He ranked 90th of 91 players in the field in fairways hit through two rounds. Errant drives haven't slowed him down yet, but if he continues to put himself out of position off the tee, he may wind up scrambling to make par more often than he'd like. If he misses a couple of makeable par putts early and his six-shot lead shrinks, the pressure will intensify.
Who can close the gap?
McIlroy's implied win probability suggests there's roughly a 25% chance that someone catches the 36-hole leader by Sunday's final putt. While it may feel like the tournament is over, that's far from the case. Trouble lurks around many holes at Augusta National, and things could flip for McIlroy with one bad shot.
Patrick Reed and Sam Burns are the two golfers tied six back of McIlroy. Reed has only made three bogeys through 36 holes thanks to his exceptional short game and putting ability. He probably doesn't have enough firepower to track McIlroy down without the leader falling back to the pack, but he can apply continuous pressure simply by hanging around.
Tommy Fleetwood and Justin Rose could make some noise. Rose gained nearly five strokes on approach shots in Round 2 and was a few short putts away from being four back of McIlroy instead of seven. Fleetwood can get hotter than most with his irons and is fourth in the field in strokes gained: putting. He shot 7-under at Shinnecock Hills under brutal scoring conditions at the 2018 U.S. Open and would likely need to replicate that round to have any chance Sunday.
If McIlroy stumbles out of the gates Saturday and a couple of chasers are under par early, the feeling that this tournament is over will quickly evaporate, and you'll be on the edge of your couch.
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