The PGA TOUR kicked off its Florida swing last week with the Cognizant Classic, a tournament we skipped betting on. We're two weeks removed from Rory McIlroy's runner-up result at the Genesis Invitational, marking our third second-place showing in our last four previews. Thank goodness Chris Gotterup pulled off a victory or this would have been a frustrating stretch.
We turn the page to this week's Arnold Palmer Invitational, another signature event and the appetizer to next week's Players Championship. Scottie Scheffler and McIlroy top the betting board at +325 and +900, respectively, on theScore Bet.
But I'll bypass the two favorites, even though McIlroy gave us a nice sweat at Riviera. His odds aren't as enticing as they were two weeks ago when he was +1200, and Scheffler - a two-time winner at Bay Hill - hasn't been playing well enough by his standards to justify consideration at such short odds.
Tournament winner odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +340 |
| Rory McIlroy | +900 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +1800 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | +2000 |
| Collin Morikawa | +2500 |
| Xander Schauffele | +2500 |
| Cameron Young | +3000 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +3000 |
| Ludvig Aberg | +3000 |
| Si Woo Kim | +3000 |
| Viktor Hovland | +3000 |
| Harris English | +3500 |
| Russell Henley | +3500 |
⛳️ Check out the entire lineup of Arnold Palmer Invitational markets available at theScore Bet here
Matthew Fitzpatrick
🏌️ Bet: To win outright (+2000)
The odds may be a tad shorter than we'd like, but Fitzpatrick is playing too well to ignore. His current ball-striking resembles what we saw out of him in a 2022 stretch when he won the U.S. Open. He's also just two tournaments removed from the best week of approach play he's recorded in his career.
The Englishman is second in the field behind McIlroy in strokes gained: tee to green over the past 12 rounds, but a wonky putter has kept him out of contention. Thankfully, Fitzpatrick putts extremely well on Bay Hill's greens; he's played this tournament 11 times and never lost strokes putting. He was a runner-up at Bay Hill in 2019 and has five other top-15 results. The stars are aligning for a Fitzpatrick victory.
Xander Schauffele
🏌️ Bet: To win outright (+2500)
I'm targeting undervalued players with my next two selections, starting with Schauffele. It's been a while since the two-time major winner has contended at a marquee event, but he's trending in the right direction. He was third in strokes gained: tee to green at the Genesis Invitational, propelling him to a T7 result. He's improved upon each of his four results this season after missing the cut at Torrey Pines in his first tournament of 2026.
Schauffele doesn't have a stellar track record at Bay Hill, but he has two top-25 results and no finish worse than T40 in four appearances. He's gained strokes off the tee in three of four starts and gained more than three strokes on the greens twice. He's yet to put it all together at Bay Hill for a high finish, but given his strong performance in the last signature event, this could easily be the week.
Ludvig Aberg
🏌️ Bet: To win outright (+3500)
I'm also trying to get ahead of Aberg before he wins or has a top-tier finish that crushes his odds for future events. The Swede is also trending toward the form we've come to expect from the two-time Ryder Cupper. He finished T20 at the Genesis Invitational, gaining nearly five total strokes on the field over the final three rounds. Had it not been for a tough Thursday, Aberg would have secured a top-10 result at Riviera.
Aberg has played the Arnold Palmer Invitational three times in his young career and has never finished worse than T25. He tied for 24th as an amateur in 2023 and has gained an average of 3.44 strokes putting per appearance.
Pierceson Coody
🏌️ Bet: Top-20 finish (+190)
Coody has been cashing in top-20 wagers with regularity this season, coming inside the top 20 in five of six starts. There's no reason to go away from him at a course that will reward his exceptional driving ability. He's fifth in the field in strokes gained: off the tee over the past 36 rounds and placed T14 in his lone start at Bay Hill in 2023.
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