The NFL season continues to chug along. Over the past three weeks, some clear trends have developed that will hopefully help us make more informed picks.
Let's get to our picks against the spread, player props, touchdown scorers, and survivor picks for Week 4.
👉 Check out all of the Week 4 lines available on theScore Bet here
Jump to: Spread picks | Early slate | Late slate | Player props | TD scorers | Survivor selections
Our trio of betting writers - Eric Patterson, Brenden Deeg, and Dane Belbeck - will make picks against the spread for Sunday's slate and Monday Night Football all season.
Eric Patterson breaks down his favorite picks against the spread, adding his own analysis and insights. He'll also identify player props and touchdown scorers to target, plus a survivor selection to help you win your pool.
🏈 Bet: Jaguars (+2.5)
Both of these teams are off to a 2-1 start, but the Jaguars have looked far more impressive. They dismantled the Browns and Patriots at home and put up a good fight on the road in the Broncos' home opener. Meanwhile, the Bengals nearly lost to the Buccaneers in Week 1, held a bad Texans offense to six points in Week 2, and lost to the Steelers by giving up 30 points to Aaron Rodgers.
However, this line suggests the Bengals are the superior team. In a game that could come down to the last possession, I'll side with the team getting the points. 👉 Add the Jaguars to your betslip on theScore Bet here.
🏈 Bet: Bills (-7)
The Bills played a terrible game against the Chargers last week and still covered the 6.5-point spread. Josh Allen should rebound against a divisional rival that's playing well below preseason expectations.
The Patriots look nothing like the team that made it to last season's Super Bowl. Their highest offensive output is 20 points at home against the Steelers, and they've scored 16 combined points in two road games. The Bills' defense isn't anything to write home about, but I have much more faith in Allen leading the Bills to 35 points than I do in Drake Maye to keep this within a touchdown. 👉 Add the Bills to your betslip on theScore Bet here.
🏈 Bet: Cowboys (+3)
The Cowboys are three-point underdogs in the battle of Texas and are the side to take in a game that could go either way. The Texans' defense has yet to live up to expectations and ranks in the middle of the pack in most defensive metrics. While it's still much better than the Cowboys' defense, Houston's edge on that side of the ball has diminished compared to last year.
Perhaps the Texans' defense will figure it out, but slowing down Dak Prescott's high-octane offense is a tough task. This game feels like a coin flip, so taking a field goal's worth of points is very valuable. 👉 Add the Cowboys to your betslip on theScore Bet here.
🏈 Bet: Ravens (-11.5)
You can't make a reasonable case for the Titans in this game, so the Ravens are the team to back. Cam Ward hasn't demonstrated development in his second year, and he's not getting much help from one of the league's worst offensive lines. The Titans are second last in yards per game and third last in points per game.
To make matters worse for Tennessee, this is Derrick Henry's first opportunity to play against his former team. The ageless wonder has six rushing touchdowns this season and is averaging 100.3 rushing yards per game. The Ravens are going to score points, and I don't see how the Titans will keep up. 👉 Add the Ravens to your betslip on theScore Bet here.
🏈 Bet: 49ers (-2.5)
Brock Purdy is performing at an MVP level and ranks first among all quarterbacks in EPA/play. With Trent Williams expected to be active, there's little concern about the 49ers' offense, even if it is missing a few skill-position players. Between Kyle Shanahan's play-calling, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey, Purdy should have more than enough weapons to maintain his standard of play.
The last time we saw the Broncos on the road, they lost 31-10 to the Chiefs in Week 1. Denver still needs to prove itself away from Mile High before it can be trusted against a high-quality opponent. 👉 Add the 49ers to your betslip on theScore Bet here.
🏈 Bet: Panthers (+4)
Bryce Young was not on the Panthers' final injury report, so it's all systems go in Carolina. The Lions' defense can't stop anyone: It's surrendering the most yards per game (443.7) and points per game (31.7) in the NFL. Sure, Detroit's offense can score 40 points in any given week, but it's tough to cover spreads when you're giving up so many points.
Rain is also expected for Sunday Night Football, which could dampen some of the Lions' offensive firepower. Take the Panthers and the points given the potential for bad weather and the Lions' defensive struggles. 👉 Add the Panthers to your betslip on theScore Bet here.
🏈 Bet: Over 59.5 receiving yards (-105)
Michael Wilson is the clear No. 1 receiver for the Cardinals, having earned seven or more targets in three straight contests. While he's only gone over 59.5 receiving yards once, that came in last week's 11-catch, 17-target performance against the 49ers. He ended the day with 89 yards and a touchdown.
The Giants are susceptible through the air, allowing 155.6 yards per game to opposing wide receivers. That includes their matchup against the Titans, who struggle to throw the ball against everyone.
🏈 Bet: Over 69.5 receiving yards (-115)
Zay Flowers was a full participant in Thursday's practice, signaling that he's recovered from his hamstring injury. This creates a betting opportunity because we've yet to see a full game from him, but he surpassed this total in both of his outings. In Week 1, Flowers had five catches for 150 yards in the first half. On a snap count last week, he still managed 84 yards. Flowers should be in line for a full allotment of snaps against the lowly Titans and should breeze past 69.5 receiving yards.
🏈 Bet: Over 4.5 receptions (+140)
In DJ Moore's two full games with the Bills, he's caught 11 passes for 167 yards. He left Week 2 with a shoulder injury, but he played last week and looked great. Now, Moore goes up against a Patriots defense that's missing Christian Gonzalez, who would have been tasked with covering Moore on occasion. Gonzalez's absence is a huge blow to New England's secondary.
🙌 Bet: Anytime TD (-130)
Until Josh Allen's odds of scoring a touchdown start resembling those of a goal-line running back, I'll continue to bet on this without hesitation. Allen is tied with Derrick Henry for the most rushing touchdowns this season with six, yet Henry's odds of scoring each week are around -200. The Bills are expected to score four touchdowns against the Patriots, and it's much more likely than not that one of those comes from Allen rumbling past the goal line.
🙌 Bet: Anytime TD (+160)
I'll target the Raiders' defense with Travis Kelce, who's having a resurgent season at age 36. Las Vegas gave up four combined touchdowns to Saints tight ends Juwan Johnson and Noah Fant last week and conceded one to Oronde Gadsden II in Week 2. Kelce has two touchdowns this season and leads Chiefs pass-catchers in receptions (14) and yards (231).
🙌 Bet: Anytime TD (+260)
We took a swing on Darren Waller last week and missed, but the Panthers tight end had his most productive day from a usage perspective. Waller had eight targets, catching five of them for 51 yards. He now faces a Lions defense that's allowed six touchdowns to tight ends in three games. Kenyon Sadiq carved up the Lions last week, Dalton Kincaid torched them in Week 2, and the Saints' duo scored a pair in Week 1. Waller has two touchdowns on 10 receptions this season and had a score called back due to a penalty in Week 1.
The Seahawks' loss to the Commanders last week offered a great reminder that road teams should never be your first option in survivor. Weird things can happen on the road, especially for a West Coast team making a trip across the country.
There are two solid options this week. The Ravens are 11.5-point favorites over the Titans at home, and the Vikings are 10.5-point favorites over the Dolphins. The latter is the best route to take. Minnesota doesn't have another presumably easy win at home, whereas Baltimore still has the Bucs and Browns at home and could be considered in a couple of upcoming road games as well.
The Vikings' defense will completely overwhelm Malik Willis, and their offense should still be able to score points without Justin Jefferson against Miami's talent-deprived defense.
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