National championship bets: Can UConn keep it close vs. Michigan?
From 68 to two. After three thrilling weeks of March Madness, a national champion will be crowned Monday night. While the Final Four didn't live up to the hype, this should be an incredible championship game between two heavyweights. Michigan is searching for its first national title since 1989, while UConn could become the first team since 1975 to win three championships in four years. Let's get to our spread, total, and player prop picks.
๐ Will Michigan or UConn win the title? Bet it with theScore Bet here
๐ Pick: Michigan -6.5
How could anyone bet against Dan Hurley? He's 11-0 against the spread in the Sweet 16 and later rounds and 18-1 overall in the NCAA Tournament across the last four seasons. The man doesn't lose in March, which makes this spread somewhat puzzling. But the Wolverines being 6.5-point favorites in spite of that tells us everything. Michigan is one of the most dominant teams in college basketball history, and one game remains before its coronation.
After annihilating Arizona - another team that's analytically considered one of the best teams ever - it's clear that Michigan's talent is far superior to everyone else's. UConn has limited other teams with elite offenses, such as Duke and Illinois, but the Wolverines' depth is their greatest strength. They include everyone offensively, plus they can score in the post and from beyond the arc. The Huskies don't have enough size to contain Michigan's offensive rebounding or interior presence.
If the Wildcats struggled in that department, then any team facing the Wolverines will. It's hard to trust UConn's offensive creators, many of whom have performed inconsistently on that side of the ball, to score enough in this matchup. Hurley's game plan will keep things close, but eventually Michigan will pull away and hoist the trophy. - Oshtry
๐ Pick: Over 145.5 points
UConn likes to play at a snail's pace, yet the Huskies are among the top 50 teams in points per game, and they've scored at least 70 in 15 of their last 18 contests. The game total has gone over in 11 of those 18 outings.
Michigan, meanwhile, is scoring at a level never seen in college basketball. The Wolverines, who are No. 4 in KenPom's offensive efficiency metric, have eclipsed 90 points in every tournament game, averaging 94.4 points over their five contests. The game total has hit over in each of them.
It's often said that playing in a football stadium can affect shooting, but both of these teams shot over 36% from distance in their respective Final Four matchups. With Solo Ball and Yaxel Lendeborg off the availability report, there's too much talent in this game to bet the under. - Deeg
๐ Bet on the national championship with the theScore Bet here
๐ Pick: Aday Mara over 13.5 points
The 7-foot-3 center is coming off a monster performance against Arizona in which he scored a season-high 26 points against one of the best interior defenses in the country.
Michigan utilized Mara in pick-and-rolls all night, and I imagine the Wolverines will once again take advantage of his size. Point guard Elliot Cadeau was nearly unstoppable when driving the lane and throwing lobs to Mara on Saturday. Those actions will likely be a key part of the team's offense early in this contest.
UConn ranks 232nd in the nation in fouls per game, so Mara should have plenty of opportunities at the free-throw line Monday. The big man has eclipsed 13.5 points in six of his last eight games, and I expect him to have solid offensive production versus the Huskies. - Deeg
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