The final quarter of the NBA's regular season is upon us, with storylines and drama abound. Here are six things worth watching over the next six weeks.
Jayson Tatum's return
After losing Tatum to a devastating Achilles injury last spring and then moving on from core pieces like Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, and Al Horford, the Boston Celtics were expected to take a one-year break from perennial contention. Head coach Joe Mazzulla's squad had other ideas.
Behind a career-year from Jaylen Brown, the usual steady two-way excellence of Derrick White, and the contributions of role players like Payton Pritchard and Neemias Queta, among others, the Celtics have surged to second place in a top-heavy Eastern Conference. The overachieving bunch only knows one gear, and it's playing with maximum effort.
The Celtics are the only team that ranks in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They own the East's best point differential, and boast the league's fifth-best record against winning teams. Boston has the look of a contender as presently constructed, which begs the question, how good can this team be with Tatum back in the lineup?
We should get an answer soon, as the six-time All-Star is expected to return this season.
We can't expect Tatum to return from a 10-month absence in peak form - which saw him make four straight All-NBA First Teams - but the scary thing for the rest of the East is that the Celtics don't need him to. The addition of another elite shot-creator, shot-maker, and star wing might be enough to put Boston over the top, even if Tatum is 75% of what he used to be when he first comes back.
Can San Antonio catch Oklahoma City?
There are a few races to monitor down the stretch. The Thunder and Pistons continue to jockey for the No. 1 overall seed. The Celtics, Knicks, and Cavs are in a tight battle to determine the East's second-through-fourth seeds. The Magic, Heat, Hawks, and surging Hornets could threaten the 76ers and Raptors for a top-six seed. Out West, the Rockets, Timberwolves, Nuggets, Lakers, and Suns are separated by just 3.5 games between third and seventh.
However, the most fascinating race is atop the West, where Oklahoma City's one-time stranglehold over the conference is down to a three-game cushion over second-place San Antonio. The true margin is even slimmer, as the Spurs trail the Thunder by only two games in the loss column and already own the season-series tiebreaker. Meanwhile, the league's second-toughest remaining schedule awaits the Thunder down the stretch.
Such a contest seemed unfathomable when OKC raced out to a 24-1 start, but the defending champions have looked rather pedestrian at times since then (at least by their standards), while the Spurs survived an injury to Victor Wembanyama and have thrived since the big man's return. San Antonio owns the league's best record over the last three months, with a four-game lead over any other West team during that time. I wouldn't put anything past them.
MVP race and the 65-game rule
I've already voiced my concerns with how the 65-game rule could skew major award races and the history books. Availability is an extremely valuable ability, but voters should get to use their judgement rather than having players disqualified prematurely.
If Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic suffer injury setbacks, it could hand the MVP award to a down-ballot candidate like Cade Cunningham by default. Elsewhere, Wembanyama is four absences away from forfeiting the Defensive Player of the Year award to one of Chet Holmgren, Rudy Gobert, Scottie Barnes, or Ausar Thompson.
The All-NBA teams could also be plunged into chaos, with megastars like Jokic, Wembanyama, and Kawhi Leonard on pace to play 61 games, 63 games, and 63 games, respectively. It's one thing to ignore someone like Giannis Antetokounmpo, who ranks 16th in Value Over Replacement Player despite missing half the season, because, well, he's missed half the season. But players like Jokic, Wembanyama, and Leonard being omitted from consideration for playing a few games less than some arbitrary cut-off line would be a travesty.
Knueppel eyeing Rookie of the Year
The Rookie of the Year award is not included in the NBA's 65-game rule, but No. 1 overall pick Cooper Flagg's latest absence due to a foot injury has hurt his chances nonetheless. That's because 20-year-old phenom Kon Knueppel is playing well beyond his years for the rising Hornets.
Knueppel, who recently broke the record for most 3-pointers made by a rookie, is averaging 19.2 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 3.5 assists on 64.8% true shooting for a .500 team in the thick of the East playoff race. He's started in 60 of his 61 appearances this season and leads the Hornets in minutes played, with his combination of shooting and movement serving as the perfect connector between LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller.
Flagg's two-way play has been almost unbelievable for a teenager. But Knueppel's production in what have become meaningful games for Charlotte means Flagg needs to get back on the court if he's going to hold off the Hornets freshman down the stretch.
It's a shame Flagg missed the final matchup of the season between Dallas and Charlotte this week, as in the first professional clash between the former Duke teammates, Flagg and Knueppel combined for 83 points on 67% shooting.
What do Giannis and the Bucks want?
In the aftermath of another trade deadline, chatter surrounding Antetokounmpo's long-term future has quieted (with talks sure to pick up again in the offseason). But the immediate future of Antetokounmpo and the Bucks is murkier than ever.
On one hand, Milwaukee has every incentive to tank down the stretch. The Bucks will receive the less favorable of their own first-round pick and New Orleans' first-rounder, the team doesn't control its own first-round pick until 2031, and the franchise has nothing resembling a blue-chip prospect on the roster. This year's draft could be Milwaukee's only chance to add such a young talent outside of an Antetokounmpo trade. Given those factors, it would've made sense for the Bucks to keep the Greek Freak on the sidelines for as long as possible due to his latest calf injury.
On the other hand, Antetokounmpo has repeatedly stated that he wants to play if he's healthy enough to do so, and the Bucks - as always - are at his mercy. Antetokounmpo returned to the lineup Monday, when Milwaukee lost to Boston to fall four games back of 10th-place Atlanta with 22 games to go.
Committing to an uphill battle just to get into the play-in tournament seems like a shortsighted decision, but if that's what Giannis wants and the whole point is keeping him happy in Milwaukee, what choice do the Bucks have? It's worth mentioning that the Bucks will face one of the league's easiest remaining schedules, and that Milwaukee has performed like a top-seven team when Giannis is on the court (plus-5.1 points per 100 possessions) as opposed to a 27th-ranked club when he sits (minus-8.1).
The great tank ... and the resulting rule changes
For roughly a third of the league, the final quarter of the season offers teams a chance to answer an important question: how low can they go?
With a star-studded 2026 draft class, a couple of weak classes projected for 2027 and 2028, and the fact that three of the league's worst teams at the moment will only retain their picks if they're in the top four (Indiana) or the top eight (Washington and Utah), the NBA is staring at a potentially unprecedented tankathon. Many teams view this year's draft as their best and potentially last chance to acquire a franchise-changing talent over the next few years.
All of that has led to much angst in the league office, with commissioner Adam Silver considering a number of lottery-related changes to disincentivize and discourage intentional losing in the future.
As fascinating as this year's race to the bottom and the lottery itself will be, perhaps most interesting is how it will impact the years (and drafts) to come.
Joseph Casciaro is theScore's lead NBA reporter.
