theScore's Nick Baldwin makes his picks ahead of Saturday's UFC 333 at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
Featherweight championship
Alexander Volkanovski (28-4)
vs.
Movsar Evloev (20-0)
Volkanovski will turn back the clock once again by taking down undefeated challenger Evloev.
Volkanovski is defending the 145-pound title for the second time in his second reign. Until he shows he's clearly past his prime, there aren't many fighters I'll pick to beat him - Evloev included.
I'm expecting a competitive, compelling fight, but I actually quite like this matchup for Volkanovski. Evloev's entire game is built around his wrestling. He's relentless on the ground and grinds out grueling wins. But Volkanovski is no chump in that area either. He hung with now-welterweight champion Islam Makhachev, so I think he can hang with Evloev, too.
In the striking department, Volkanovski is still as good as anybody in the division. The biggest knock on the 38-year-old Australian is that his chin might not be good after his knockout losses to Makhachev and Ilia Topuria. But Evloev has gone the distance in all 10 of his UFC fights and holds just three knockout wins in 20 career victories. As talented as Evloev is, he's not a huge threat in the stand-up department.
To me, this matchup is less dangerous for Volkanovski than facing someone like Diego Lopes, who can shut out anyone's lights at any moment. Volkanovski will stay busy and outstrike Evloev on the feet to edge him out on the scorecards.
The pick: Volkanovski, unanimous decision
Bantamweight championship
Petr Yan (20-5)
vs.
Merab Dvalishvili (21-5)
It's tough to know what to make of this trilogy bout. Dvalishvili utterly dominated Yan in their first fight in March 2023, and then Yan flipped the script by scoring a surprisingly convincing victory in their rematch last December. We've seen completely different fights between these two, so it's anybody's guess what this one will look like.
Dvalishvili apparently went into the rematch under less-than-ideal circumstances. It was his fourth fight of the year, as he was attempting to set a new record for the most successful UFC bantamweight title defenses in a calendar year. He had a tough fight camp and seemed a bit burnt out by all the activity.
If we get the best version of Dvalishvili in his return Saturday, I want to say he can beat Yan. His pace, pressure, and cardiovascular endurance are unmatched. Yan solved the Dvalishvili puzzle 10 months ago, but I'm sure Dvalishvili has watched that fight back several times and knows what adjustments he needs to make.
That said, it won't be easy.
Yan has the best boxing in the 135-pound division and is also great at adjusting on the fly. He starts a bit slow, but by the fourth and fifth rounds, he is a buzz saw. If Dvalishvili can't continually get in Yan's face and take him down, it could be another long night for the former champion. But in the end, I'll pick Dvalishvili to win a back-and-forth classic.
The pick: Dvalishvili, unanimous decision
Flyweight bout
Lone'er Kavanagh (10-2)
vs.
Ramazan Temirov (20-2)
It seemed like Kavanagh was on track for a title shot when he beat former two-time champion Brandon Moreno in February, but then Brandon Royval submitted him five months later. That makes this fight against Temirov extremely important if Kavanagh wants to get even close to a crack at the belt anytime soon.
Unfortunately for Kavanagh, he'll have his hands full against Temirov, who's coming off a first-round knockout of Steve Erceg in July and is beyond explosive for flyweight standards. We don't really know how good Temirov is yet, but I have a feeling we'll be talking about him for a while.
The pick: Temirov, second-round TKO
Heavyweight bout
Alexander Volkov (40-11)
vs.
Rizvan Kuniev (15-3-1, 1 NC)
Kuniev has been impressive in the UFC so far, beating Jailton Almeida and finishing Tyrell Fortune after losing a split decision to Curtis Blaydes that easily could've gone the other way. But Volkov is arguably the best heavyweight in the UFC not named Tom Aspinall. The Russian veteran is on a mission to finally secure a title shot, and he won't let Kuniev ruin his chances.
The pick: Volkov, unanimous decision
Featherweight bout
Aaron Pico (14-5)
vs.
Losene Keita (17-2)
This is one of the most intriguing matchups on the card. Pico was initially supposed to face Arnold Allen, but he gets a highly touted, unranked prospect in Keita instead.
Pico has all the makings of a featherweight title contender, but he hasn't quite put it all together yet. The former Bellator and PFL fighter suffered a brutal knockout loss to Lerone Murphy in his UFC debut 14 months ago, but he earned a nice bounce-back win against Patricio "Pitbull" Freire earlier in 2026. If he can get past Keita and move to 2-1 in the Octagon, that'd be a good sign for his future.
I could see Keita pulling off the upset thanks to his explosive knockout power, but I'll take Pico as the more skilled fighter overall to win a quick brawl.
The pick: Pico, first-round TKO
Rapid-fire bets
💥 Best overall bet: Alexander Volkanovski (-120) def. Movsar Evloev
Volkanovski has beaten the who's who of the featherweight division, and he'll add another huge win to his resume at UFC 333.
💥 Best underdog bet: Merab Dvalishvili (+125) def. Petr Yan
Any time you can get "The Machine" at plus money, you probably should take it.
💥 Best prop bet: Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita goes under 2.5 rounds (-160)
Pico-Keita will be a car crash of a fight. This one isn't going the distance.
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