MLB offseason: Analysis for all major December moves

The MLB offseason is underway. Follow along for analysis of all major transactions from December.

Jump to:
Kyle Schwarber I Edwin Díaz I Cody Ponce I Pete Alonso I Michael King I Brandon Lowe I Shane Baz I Munetaka Murakami I November moves

Dec. 21

Red Sox address 1B by adding Contreras

What it means for Red Sox: Craig Breslow finally landed an impact right-handed bat that can slot into the middle of the order. Contreras gives the Red Sox a legitimate first baseman after the team received limited production from the position (22nd in OPS) last season following an injury to Triston Casas. Even entering his age 34-season, Contreras does a lot of what the Red Sox need; he hits the ball hard (83rd percentile) and pulls it in the air - which will really benefit him at Fenway Park. He's also an excellent defender and will shore up an infield that struggled to take care of the ball in recent years.

He ranks 25th in MLB over the last two seasons with a 130 wRC+ (min. 800 PAs), which is just behind Pete Alonso, who inked a $150-million deal earlier this month. Contreras doesn't have the raw power of Alonso, but he's been arguably as valuable at the plate over the last two seasons, is a better defender, comes at half the cost, and lacks the long-term risk. Contreras is not a star, but he's a significant upgrade for Boston.

The Cardinals moved Contreras out from behind the plate last season, though we'll see if the Red Sox have any ambitions of allowing him to catch again given their lack of depth behind Carlos Narváez. Considering there's been some durability concerns with Contreras, they might be better off just allowing him to split time at first base and DH.

It will be interesting to see the ripple effect of the Contreras signing for Boston. There's still room on the roster for Casas, but the club might opt to start him in Triple-A next season coming off a serious knee injury. They could opt to trade him, but they'd be selling low at this point on a promising young player they don't have to move.

Contreras' relatively low salary - Boston's on the hook for $33.5 million over the next two years - should mean there's plenty of money left to sign either Bo Bichette or Alex Bregman to cement the infield. The Red Sox have also been heavily linked to Ketel Marte, though they might be hesitant to deal more pitching prospects away after parting with a number of arms this winter.

What it means for Cardinals: Chaim Bloom continues to put his stamp on a Cardinals team that is clearly in a full rebuild. He's now traded Contreras and Sonny Gray to the Red Sox in separate deals for five arms - two of which have a shot at featuring in the rotation in 2026. Dobbins posted a 4.13 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 45 strikeouts across 61 innings last season before tearing his ACL in July. The 26-year-old doesn't have an extremely high ceiling, but he projects to be a capable MLB starter. Dobbins, who was drafted by Bloom in 2021, will need to work on missing more bats in order to unlock another level.

Fajardo will be the piece Cardinals fans will likely be most intrigued about. The 19-year-old will slot in as the No. 9 prospect in the system after posting a 2.25 ERA and 10.4 K/9 across A-ball and Rookie ball. Considered to be one of the most advanced pitchers in the low minors, he possesses a big fastball and projects to be a mid-rotation starter. Bloom balancing current and future needs with both trades with Boston is exactly what he needs to do at this stage in the team's rebuild. Expect him to try and find a deal for Brendan Donovan next, while also looking to see if he can salvage any return for Nolan Arenado.

White Sox take fun gamble on Murakami's power

✍️ 2-year, $34M contract

What it means for White Sox: What a perfect - and incredibly fun - signing for Chicago. Murakami brings legitimate power to a team that ranked second-last in the American League in home runs in 2025. He's hit 265 homers over 1,003 games in Japan - including a record 56-home run season in 2022 as a 22-year-old. With that power comes a pretty dreadful 28.6% strikeout rate from last season; that will likely get further exposed in a league with higher velocity and more difficult pitching.

Only eight qualified hitters had a higher strikeout rate in MLB last season. We've seen a lot of players come through the minors who hit for monster exit velocities and sell out for big power but get drastically exposed by too much swing-and-miss in their bat. Bobby Dalbec and Franchy Cordero are some names that come to mind. Murakami will need to make sure that when he does make contact, he's doing enough damage to justify the strikeouts.

The concern over his offensive profile, and the fact that he'll be a first baseman, is what likely led to Murakami accepting only a two-year deal. The market for a long-term, big-money offer just didn't appear to develop. If he shows an ability to adjust, and the power translates here, he sets himself up to re-enter the free-agent market going into his age-28 season. With expectations low heading into 2026 for the White Sox, they can afford to let Murakami work through adjustments and give him the necessary at-bats he'll need that might not have been there on a contender.

Not to give what's been a pretty frugal ownership too much credit, but it's great to see the White Sox spending some money this winter. Murakami will be the team's second-highest paid player by AAV, and could be the highest if Luis Robert Jr. is traded. With Murakami, Kyle Teel, Colson Montgomery, and a number of young pieces coming through the minors, there's reason for fans on the South Side to be excited about the future after enduring another full teardown.

If Murakami does prove he can hit in the majors, maybe the White Sox are able to work out a long-term extension, or maybe they flip him for more valuable pieces. If he struggles, then they're only out money - something they should have plenty of after carrying the second-lowest payroll in MLB last season ($91.8 million).

Dec. 19

Rays swing another trade as Baz lands in Baltimore

What it means for Orioles: Mike Elias continues an aggressive offseason by using his deep minor-league system to add a controllable pitcher who could become a frontline starter if everything clicks. Baz is projected to earn $3.1 million in arbitration in 2026 and is under team control through 2028. The 26-year-old is coming off what looks like a down season - 4.87 ERA, 1.33 WHIP in 166 1/3 innings - but a lot of those issues stem from pitching at Steinbrenner Field. Baz had a 5.90 ERA and surrendered 18 home runs in 82 1/3 innings at home, but he posted a 3.86 ERA in 84 innings on the road. His strikeout numbers also spiked last season while he limited the number of hard-hit balls allowed. We'll see if a bigger ballpark and a different pitching philosophy allow Baz to reach his full potential. The Orioles clearly believe in him based on what they gave up.

Baltimore's rotation looks fine on paper after slotting in Baz for the traded Grayson Rodriguez, but it could still benefit from another high-profile addition alongside Trevor Rogers. Even after signing Pete Alonso, there should be money for another starter: The Orioles' entire rotation is projected to earn $19.7 million in 2026. Six AL East pitchers are each set to earn more than that next season.

The Orioles have been crushed in recent winters for not doing enough to supplement a strong young core, but you can really feel their sense of urgency after an embarrassing season. The cost to acquire Baz was steep; Bodine was the 30th pick in last year's draft, while De Brun went 37th. The compensation pick is the 33rd selection in the 2026 draft. The time to win in Baltimore is now, so it's nice to see Elias starting to push in some of those chips.

What it means for Rays: OK, so Tampa Bay has to be setting up for something bigger here, right? President of baseball operations Erik Neander traded four players from his major-league roster in 30 minutes for a package of six prospects and a competitive balance pick. Tampa Bay had the 10th-ranked minor-league system in August, per MLB Pipeline, so some of the players brought in will likely help prop up the system - Forret, De Brun, and Bodine all rank within the Rays' top 11. Now Neander has enough intriguing pieces to package for an impact MLB player such as Ketel Marte.

Tampa Bay doesn't seem to be punting on 2026, and despite the losses of Baz and Brandon Lowe, there's certainly a universe in which the team is more competitive heading into spring training having made these moves. No team is better at selling high in order to extend its competitive window than the Rays.

Pirates add Lowe in 3-team trade involving Astros, Rays

What it means for Pirates: Pittsburgh entered the offseason in desperate need of offense and has now swung two trades in which the team dealt a starting pitcher to acquire a bat. Lowe is coming off a season in which he hit 31 home runs to go with a .785 OPS across 134 games. He not only addresses a significant need at second base for the Pirates, but also gives them a power bat in the middle of the lineup. Pittsburgh had just one player reach the 20-homer mark last season, while its second basemen ranked 23rd in OPS (.651) and 26th in home runs (8). The club also ranked 28th in home runs by left-handed hitters.

Lowe checks off many areas of need for Pittsburgh, though he carries some risk. In addition to being a poor defender, Lowe sells out for power by striking out a lot (26.9%) and rarely drawing walks (6.9%). The 31-year-old has struggled to stay on the field consistently; he landed on the IL twice last season and has missed 136 games over the last three years. Lowe will also be a free agent at the end of this season.

Montgomery has big strikeout stuff (12.3 K/9) and throws very hard, but he really struggles with command (5.3 BB/9). He'll be a project. Mangum is an excellent defensive outfielder thanks to his elite speed. He doesn't strike out, but he doesn't offer much offense or power either. He'll likely be a serviceable fourth outfielder.

While Montgomery and Mangum are cheap pieces that can slide into the MLB roster, trading an intriguing arm like Burrows for a rental as the centerpiece of the deal could be perceived as a gamble for a club that's not exactly built to win in 2026. At least it's good to see the Pirates trying to assemble a competitive team around Paul Skenes.

What it means for Astros: This isn't exactly like when Houston landed Gerrit Cole from Pittsburgh in 2018, but Burrows should immediately slide into the Astros' rotation. Houston really needs pitching behind Hunter Brown and Cristian Javier, and the front office doesn't seem eager to spend big in free agency to get it.

Burrows, 26, is making the league minimum and is under team control through 2031. The right-hander posted a 3.94 ERA over 96 innings in 2025 - his first full season in the majors. He really settled in down the stretch, allowing just one home run and four walks over his final 23 1/3 innings while striking out 24. In order to have sustained success, he needs better results from his four-seam fastball; that pitch got hit hard last season (.529 SLG). His changeup was effective, though, with opponents hitting .147 off the pitch as it generated a 43.1% whiff rate.

What it means for Rays: Tampa Bay has parted with two of its longest-tenured players this winter in Pete Fairbanks and now Lowe. Drafted by the club in 2015, Lowe ranks eighth in franchise history in games played and third in home runs. Still, it's no surprise to see the Rays extract value from a player on an expiring deal and clear out his $11.5-million salary in order to reallocate it elsewhere. Despite the trade, the Rays don't seem to be punting on 2026, and the prospect return here potentially sets them up to make a bigger swap for established talent. Melton (No. 2) and Brito (No. 7) were among Houston's better prospects, though they weren't in MLB's Top 100. Melton has a chance to crack the Opening Day roster if he isn't packaged in another trade.

Dec. 18

King keeps crown in San Diego

✍️ 3-year, $75M contract

What it means for Padres: Always expect the unexpected from A.J. Preller. As the baseball world awaited his next big Padres blockbuster trade, San Diego's president of baseball operations opted to address one of the holes in the rotation by re-signing Michael King. The right-hander's return to the club comes as a surprise; it was reported earlier in the week that the Boston Red Sox, Baltimore Orioles, and New York Yankees were finalists as King looked to pitch on the East Coast. There's a chance the offers just weren't to King's liking coming off an injury-filled season that limited him to just 15 starts. Being attached to a qualifying offer also potentially hindered his market, as it's tough for interested teams to justify giving up a compensation pick on a player searching for a short-term deal.

King's three-year contract in San Diego allows him to remain with an organization he's comfortable with. Meanwhile, the opt-outs essentially give him financial security if he gets hurt again and the luxury to test the market if he's able to put together a strong season in either of the next two years. It's hard to find any issues with this move from King's perspective.

There's a lot to like about the contract structure for the Padres as well. Preller has a lot of money on his books and little flexibility in terms of payroll or trade pieces. Locking in a starter with King's ceiling allows the team to keep its competitive window open without saddling the club with another long-term deal. Preller also used a similarly creative contract structure when signing Nick Pivetta a year prior.

It will be really interesting to see what Preller has up his sleeve. Does King's return make Pivetta potentially expendable as one of Preller's better trade chips, or does he try to add another starter to make the rotation even deeper? We're still waiting for that rumored blockbuster trade.

Dec. 14

Kelly rejoins D-Backs months after trade

✍️ 2-year, $40M contract

What it means for D-Backs: Arizona shipped Merrill Kelly to the Texas Rangers for pitching prospects Kohl Drake (No. 6 prospect), Mitch Bratt (No. 9), and David Hagaman (No. 15) at the deadline in July. Fast-forward five months later and the D-Backs now have all four in the organization. That trade couldn't have worked out better for Arizona. Kelly's been a valued member of the team's rotation since signing out of Korea in 2019. He's made at least 30 starts in three of the last four years and is coming off another solid season in which he pitched to a 3.52 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 167 strikeouts over 184 innings.

The D-Backs indicated at the trade deadline that their intention was to retool quickly, as they targeted prospects that had either MLB experience or were on the verge of reaching the majors. The $40-million commitment to Kelly illustrates that the front office believes it will compete for a playoff spot in 2026. It also amounts to more than Kelly's total career earnings for the first seven years in the majors - a pretty impressive accomplishment for someone so late in their career. Arizona's 40-man payroll now sits around $200 million, so it will be interesting to see if the club ends up trading Ketel Marte at this point, or if it will try to address roster holes in other ways.

Brewers swing puzzling trade with Royals

What it means for Royals: Kansas City entered the offseason in desperate need after its outfielders finished last in OPS (.617) and fWAR (-1.4) in 2025. To address that, the front office added Lane Thomas (1-year, $5.25M) and Collins over a 72-hour span. While neither are stars, they should raise the floor, and both were acquired for essentially nothing. Collins is coming off a breakout season at age 27 in which he hit nine homers, stole 16 bases, and posted a .368 OBP along with a .779 OPS. He's also a plus defender and switch-hitter and isn't arbitration-eligible until 2028. With the Royals still in need of outfield help, we'll see if they continue to be linked to the likes of Jarren Duran, Teoscar Hernández, and Brendan Donovan, or was this their big move? Mears essentially fills Zerpa's spot in the 'pen. He saw a drastic decline in strikeouts last season - posting a career-low 7.3 K/9 - but was more effective. His 3.49 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 3.86 FIP were among the best numbers of his career, and he cut down on his walks. The 29-year-old has two years of team control.

What it means for Brewers: Milwaukee was dealing with an outfield surplus, and while it appears to be an overpay for Zerpa on paper, the front office deserves the benefit of the doubt, as it's historically had a lot of success once getting pitchers into its organization. The Brewers intend to try out Zerpa - who has three years of club control - as a starter despite the left-hander making only eight starts over his 148 career appearances. He allowed a .839 OPS against right-handed hitters last season, so he'll need to find a pitch to neutralize those batters to stay in the rotation. If Zerpa can't stick as a starter - which is a big if - the deal looks pretty puzzling, even with the Brewers dealing from a position of strength.

Kenley to close in Detroit

✍️ 1-year, $11M contract

What it means for Tigers: Detroit will enter a fifth straight season with a different closer anchoring the bullpen after adding Jansen. The 38-year-old is three saves away from taking over third place on MLB's all-time list and still remains an effective reliever despite diminished stuff. Jansen is coming off a season in which he converted 29 saves to go with a 2.59 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 165 ERA+. There are some concerning trends though; his 8.7 K/9, hard-hit percentage of 44.6%, and 91.5-mph exit velocity were the worst marks of his 16-year career. He's no longer the dominant closer that he once was, but there's still reason to think the Tigers will get enough value out of Jansen on a one-year deal at a relatively modest salary to justify the move. Detroit is better with Jansen and Kyle Finnegan at the back of the bullpen than it is without, and considering what's available and what the team was willing to pay, Jansen was likely the best choice. We've also seen how effective A.J. Hinch is at getting the most out of his relievers.

Mets add Polanco to fill Alonso void

✍️ 2-year, $40M contract

What it means for Mets: It certainly won't make Mets fans feel much better following the departures of Pete Alonso and Edwin Díaz, but the addition of Jorge Polanco is a solid one for New York. The 32-year-old is coming off a really strong offensive season in which he slashed .265/.326/.495 with 26 homers, 30 doubles, and 2.6 fWAR. Polanco drastically cut down his strikeouts in 2025, posting a career-best 15.6 K%, while his 132 wRC+ ranked second among qualified second baseman. All of his advanced numbers back up Polanco's strong year being sustainable throughout the length of the deal.

Don't expect to see much of Polanco at second base though, with Marcus Semien also coming to Queens this winter. That's probably a good thing given Polanco's below-average defense. Instead, Polanco will likely see time as the Mets' designated hitter while also getting reps at first base - a position he's never played in the majors. That's somewhat of a gamble for an organization that's said improving defensively was a focus this winter. But the Mets also need to score runs, and Polanco should be able to help in that department. A $20-million AAV seems steep, though David Stearns is said to not want to sign many long-term deals to players in their 30s, so an overpay in order go limit the term makes sense.

Dec. 12

Blue Jays keep loading up on arms as Rogers joins 'pen

✍️ 3-year, $37M contract

What it means for Blue Jays: After adding two starters with gaudy strikeout numbers, GM Ross Atkins turned to the bullpen to bring in a reliever with a much different profile. Tyler Rogers isn't going to strike out many batters - his 5.6 K/9 last season ranked 144th out of 147 qualified relievers - but his unique delivery and incredible control has allowed him to be one of the most dominant and underrated arms in the majors since 2021.

Rogers doesn't allow home runs, doesn't walk anyone, and is elite at generating ground balls. That's a pretty great skillset to have when pitching with an elite defense behind you. The 34-year-old had the sixth-highest ground-ball rate (62.1%), and MLB best 0.8 BB/9 in 2025. Rogers is also exceptionally durable, leading all MLB relievers in appearances over the last two seasons. While the Blue Jays are open to acquiring a closer this offseason to push Jeff Hoffman into a setup role, that likely won't be Rogers; he's recorded just three saves over his last four seasons, and 19 for his career. That's not to say he can't do it, but he'll likely be used in other high-leverage situations earlier in the game.

The Blue Jays' three free-agent pitching signings this winter have all come at the high end of projections. While some might call that an overpay, it's better viewed as the front office and ownership identifying their ideal targets and ensuring that money won't be a roadblock.

Toronto's luxury-tax threshold now sits at approximately $294 million. With the team reportedly interested in bringing in another marquee bat, it appears their 2026 payroll will easily exceed $300 million unless they move out salary in another deal. The first tax threshold sits at $244 million for 2026, with penalties increasing the higher the payroll. The Blue Jays would receive the harshest penalties should they carry more than a $304-million payroll by the end of next season. That's a small price to pay for a club trying to win a World Series, though.

Dec. 11

Braves make another big bullpen add in Suarez

✍️ 3-year, $45M contract

What it means for Braves: Despite re-signing closer Raisel Iglesias to open the offseason, Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos clearly wasn't satisfied with the back end of his bullpen. Signing Robert Suarez - arguably the second-best closer on the free-agent market after Edwin Díaz - to serve as a setup man gives Atlanta one of the best late-inning tandems in the majors. Suarez ranks first in MLB in saves over the last two seasons, while Iglesias sits fifth. It's likely Suarez will slide into the closer's role at some point in the contract.

Anthopoulos has been busy trying to retool a Braves team that really struggled to stay healthy last season - especially from a pitching standpoint. Suarez should help there; both he and Iglesias have combined to make 271 appearances since 2024. They're both workhorses. Not only is Suarez reliable when it comes to taking the ball, but the right-hander's also been dominant the last two seasons. He's coming off a year in which he posted career-bests in FIP, HR/9, and BB/9 while striking out more than a batter an inning. A big contributor to those strikeouts is a fastball that ranks in the 97th percentile in velocity and limited opposing batters to a .239 slug on the pitch in 2025. Suarez ended up signing for $6 million less than what Devin Williams landed with the Mets.

Dec. 10

Orioles shock with $155M signing of Alonso

✍️ 5-year, $155M contract

What it means for Orioles: Mike Elias wasted no time pivoting off Kyle Schwarber. Less than 24 hours after Schwarber turned down the Orioles to remain in Philadelphia, Baltimore's president of baseball operations made an aggressive offer to sign Alonso. The 31-year-old is a huge get for an Orioles club that surprisingly ranked 11th in homers, 21st in OPS, and 24th in runs scored a season ago. Alonso and his 264 career home runs - a Mets franchise record - will slot into the middle of the order, helping to balance the left-handed bats and give protection to Gunnar Henderson while taking some of the offensive pressure off Adley Rutschman. Orioles ownership has stepped up in a big way following a disastrous season. The club has added roughly $192 million in salary by bringing in Alonso, Taylor Ward, Ryan Helsley, and Andrew Kittredge. There's obviously enormous risk in handing a first baseman in his 30s a substantial amount of money - and the Orioles are plenty familiar with how the Chris Davis deal aged - but given where the club is in their competitive window, it's a move well worth taking. Baltimore is one frontline starter away from looking very dangerous heading into next season. Maybe it uses Ryan Mountcastle or Coby Mayo to land a starter in a trade.

What it means for Mets: It's been a tough early offseason in Queens, as the club let longtime fan favorites Alonso, Edwin Díaz, and Brandon Nimmo depart. New York's front office seems to be welcoming a major clubhouse overhaul after last season's collapse, in which the team missed the playoffs. The Mets didn't seem to really even want to bring Alonso back last season, so it isn't a major surprise that they weren't really in the bidding again. Still, it's a little strange how easily they were willing to let him walk. David Stearns has brought in Marcus Semien and Devin Williams this winter - two players who could be considered reclamation projects. We'll see if there's a real impact move to come or if Stearns opts to make minor tweaks. Not only does Alonso's departure take a massive bat out of the lineup, but it also removes protection for Juan Soto. If the Mets don't bring in someone imposing to hit behind Soto, he very well could walk 150 times in 2026.

What it means for Red Sox: Alonso represented the best fit of any of the free agents available for Boston. The Red Sox need a slugging right-handed hitting first baseman to sit in the middle of the order. Alonso would have given them exactly what they've missed since trading Rafael Devers away over hurt feelings. Despite the fit, Boston reportedly didn't pursue Alonso with any real urgency. After back-to-back injury-plagued seasons of Triston Casas, it would make sense for Craig Breslow to try to find, at the very least, a right-handed hitting complement to share first base. However, needing to platoon that position can be viewed as a wasted roster spot. There are still plenty of other avenues in which the Red Sox can improve from an offensive standpoint. Still, now that the two biggest sluggers are off the market, the pressure will only begin to ramp up for a club that continuously says publicly how aggressive it's going to be to improve. Seeing Alonso go to a division rival hurts just a little more.

Dec. 9

Dodgers land Díaz ... because of course they did

✍️ 3-year, $69M contract

What it means for Dodgers: When you're the two-time defending World Series champion, why not spoil yourselves and add baseball's best closer? Díaz will stabilize the back of a Dodgers bullpen that struggled tremendously last season despite enormous resources being dumped into it. His presence allows Roki Sasaki to enter spring training as a starter again. Tanner Scott, who inked a four-year, $72-million contract with Los Angeles ahead of last season, will likely become MLB's most expensive setup man. Yes, that means the Dodgers have spent $141 million on closers in consecutive seasons - but Díaz is far less of a gamble than Scott. The Puerto Rican won his third career Reliever of the Year award in 2025 after posting a 1.63 ERA and 0.87 WHIP with a 13.3 K/9. He's a three-time All-Star and has converted more than 30 saves four different times. He's worth every penny.

While the Dodgers made Díaz the richest closer in terms of AAV - they're going to pay a reliever a shocking $23 million per season - the overall dollar amount seems surprisingly ... low. Díaz opted out of the final three years and $57 million left on his deal with the New York Mets only to get a solid, but not substantial, raise. It was reported that the 31-year-old was seeking a deal north of $100 million, so Los Angeles has to be thrilled with both the total dollars and short term they had to commit. The Mets also reportedly made an initial three-year, $66-million offer to Díaz, but it seems he looked at the Dodgers as his best chance to win what would be his first World Series, and a chance for a fresh start.

Schwarber stays in Philly

✍️ 5-year, $150M contract

What it means for Phillies: This always felt like the most logical outcome. Dave Dombrowski wasn't going to allow arguably his team's most important bat to leave in free agency, and it never seemed like Schwarber wanted to leave Philly, so the two sides eventually settled on a hefty but reasonable contract. Once it was reported that the Pittsburgh Pirates offered Schwarber a four-year, $125-million deal, it seemed like the market was where it needed to be for him to sign soon. Paying $150 million for a designated hitter comes with significant risk, though Schwarber possesses plenty attributes that help justify the deal. The 32-year-old has power to all fields and is coming off a year where he ranked in the 98th percentile or better in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, bat speed, and walk rate. While he does strike out a lot, the underlying stats are predictors of his bat remaining elite for years to come.

The Phillies now have Schwarber, Trea Turner, and Bryce Harper signed through at least the 2030 season. That's significant money tied up to an aging core, but they all currently remain productive. With Schwarber re-signed, Dombrowski can now focus his attention on addressing the bottom of the lineup, finding an everyday catcher, and bringing in some starting pitching help. Hopefully Schwarber coming off the board gets the rest of the market moving for the other top free-agent position players.

Dec. 4

Red Sox add intriguing arm in Oviedo for Top 100 prospect

What it means for Red Sox: Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow continues to add to the club's starting pitching depth by dealing from a deep crop of young players. Johan Oviedo can look like a budding ace in one start and struggle the next, but he's exactly the type of arm that teams are willing to roll the dice on. Breslow is clearly hoping the right-hander can benefit from getting in the club's pitching lab. Oviedo generates plenty of whiffs and strikeouts while limiting hard contact by missing barrels. He's coming off an abbreviated season in which he posted a career-best 24.7% strikeout rate and 35.3% hard-hit rate.

Although Oviedo posted the highest walk rate of his career (13.5%), part of that lack of command could stem from missing all of 2024 following Tommy John surgery. With Oviedo's ceiling being a potential No. 2 or 3 starter and his floor as a capable rotation piece, it's hard not to like the move for Boston - especially when factoring in his salary. He's projected to earn $2 million in 2026 through arbitration and has an additional year of team control. The Red Sox have now built up a lot of back-end starting pitching depth and have more than enough pieces to go out and make a bigger move for a top-of-the-rotation starter like Cole Ragans or Freddy Peralta.

What it means for the Pirates: Pittsburgh has struggled for what seems like forever to develop impact position players, but it's had steady success finding arms. Oviedo always seemed like the odd man out heading into 2026, and that starting pitching pipeline led the Pirates to deal from a position of strength to acquire what they hope will be a foundational piece moving forward. Garcia ranked as the No. 3 prospect for the Red Sox but was heavily blocked in Boston's crowded outfield. Spending more time in the minors likely won't drive his development. He'll get a chance to play every day in Pittsburgh, and the big-league club will hope his right-handed power bat and solid defensive play will help it build toward becoming a winning club in 2026 and beyond.

The Pirates had two players hit more than 15 home runs last season, while Garcia hit 21 across Double-A and Triple-A as a 22-year-old. He'll need to cut down on his strikeout rate to be successful at the MLB level, but the power is there. With Pittsburgh expected to have some payroll flexibility this winter, adding Garcia, who comes with a rookie minimum salary and six years of control, likely allows the club to spend on a different area of need. It's hard not to like this trade for both sides.

Dec. 2

Blue Jays bring in KBO MVP Ponce

✍️ 3-year, $30M contract

What it means for the Blue Jays: Toronto continues to be aggressive in the pitching market, and now have as many as nine potential rotation options heading into 2026 after inking right-hander Cody Ponce to a three-year deal. The 31-year-old struggled during his brief MLB career, posting a 5.86 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, and 7.8 K/9 across 55 1/3 innings (20 appearances) from 2020-21. Ponce then bounced around in Japan for three seasons before truly breaking out last year in Korea.

But the Ponce from the majors is far different than the one that starred in the KBO. He's upped his velocity and added a cutter. Together, those tools made him into the most dominant pitcher in Korea in 2025. While the KBO is clearly not the same standard as MLB, Ponce's numbers were still so absurdly good that you have to be intrigued with how his stuff will translate. In 29 starts with Hanwha, Ponce went 17-1 with a 2.04 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 252 strikeouts over 180 2/3 innings.

Toronto's made a stronger commitment to scouting in Asia in recent years, and a three-year pact clearly means they're confident in his stuff. The club signed Eric Lauer out of Korea last December, and Yariel Rodríguez out of Japan the year prior. They were also heavily linked to Roki Sasaki. What role Ponce plays to open the season remains to be seen, but he likely projects as a starter. That means the Blue Jays could look to move another arm this winter in order to add to the bullpen, or fill holes offensively. Kevin Gausman, Dylan Cease, Shane Bieber, Trey Yesavage, and José Berríos made up the projected rotation prior to the Ponce signing. Maybe Toronto looks to deal Berríos, or uses Ponce as a swingman, not unlike Lauer. Ponce's contract isn't that tough to absorb if he is a reliever, especially with those strikeout numbers. His arrival also allows the club to manage Yesavage's innings in his sophomore season.

Coming off an agonizing World Series loss, the Blue Jays have already committed $256 million to pitching this winter, and have a projected CBT payroll of roughly $280 million for 2026. It's clear the Blue Jays entered the offseason with a focus on adding pitcher's with elite swing-and-miss stuff in the rotation.

See all November moves 👉